IMF Faults Forex Restrictions On 43 Items As Hurting Investments
The foreign exchange restrictions placed on 43 items by the Central Bank
of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday drew criticism from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
The policy is holding back Foreign Direct
Investments (FDIs) into the local economy, IMF’s Divisional Chief,
Research Department, Oya Celasun, told a news conference on the World
Economic Outlook at the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington
D.C.
Besides, the IMF chief said Nigeria requires a tight
monetary policy and the unification of its exchange rates to achieve the
desired growth.
His position contradicted that of CBN Governor
Godwin Emefiele who had always insisted that the apex bank acted in the
best interest of the local economy.
He said the decision to
restrict forex access and shut the official foreign exchange window for
the importation of the banned 43 items would protect Nigeria’s foreign
reserves, as well as the nation’s economy.
According to him, the
policy was introduced to stimulate the domestic economy and enhance
domestic production and protect local industries from undue foreign
competition and take-over.
But Celasun said the policy was
working to the contrary, pointing out that Nigeria’s growth has been
weak, even as he gave hope that growth would pick up next year with
support from the agricultural sector, which will enable the country to
spend more on priorities, such as social safety and infrastructure.
He
said: “There is need for the strengthening of the banking system and
unified exchange rate system. Foreign exchange restrictions have also
been distorting the public and private sector decisions and holding back
investment. Therefore, strengthening the banking sector resilience and
continued stronger structural reforms, especially in infrastructure,
power sector and broader governance, are critical.”
Eyes Of Lagos
gathered that, IMF Chief Economist and Director of the Research
Department Mrs. Gita Gopinath noted that the local economy still
depended on oil prices and its prospects.
She added that there
has been some weaknesses in the oil sector, stressing that one thing to
keep in mind about Nigeria was that per capital growth has remain weak,
hence, the need for structural reforms.
Celasun said Nigeria saw slight upward revision for growth this year and that came mostly from strong agricultural production.
However, the growth was not high enough to lift the per capital growth into positive territory.
Mrs.
Gopinath said: “For some time, we have been emphasing on a
comprehensive package to lift growth. One element of that will have to
be stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation, as Nigeria has one of the
lowest rate of revenue in the world, which was hit hard by the drop in
oil prices. Stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation is essential for the
country to be able to spend more on priorities such as social safety and
infrastructure.”
She said the global economy is in a
synchronised slowdown, stating that the Fund was downgrading growth for
2019 to three per cent, its slowest pace since the global financial
crisis.
Her words: “Growth continues to be weakened by rising
trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that
the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.8 per cent by 2020.
“Growth is
also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging
market economies, and structural forces—such as low productivity growth
and aging demographics in advanced economies, adding that in the
October World Economic Outlook.
“We are projecting a modest
improvement in global growth to 3.4 per cent in 2020, reflecting another
downward revision of 0.2 per cent from our April projections. However,
unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not broad-based and
remains precarious.”
She attributed the weakness in growth to a
sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with
higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging
investments and demand for capital goods.
“In addition, the
automobile industry is contracting owing also to a variety of factors,
such as disruptions from new emission standards in the Euro area and
China that have had durable effects. Overall, trade volume growth in the
first half of 2019 has fallen to one percent, the weakest level since
2012,” she said.
She went on: “Also, in contrast to extremely
weak manufacturing and trade, the services sector continues to hold up
almost across the globe. This has kept labour markets buoyant and wage
growth and consumption spending healthy in advanced economies, saying
there are some initial signs of softening in the services sector in the
United States and euro area.
“Monetary policy has played a
significant role in supporting growth. In the absence of inflationary
pressures and facing weakening activity, major central banks have
appropriately eased to reduce downside risks to growth and to prevent
de-anchoring of inflation expectations.