Weekend Movie: Black Panther Opening This Weekend

Disney and Marvel's Black Panther is set to deliver one of the largest opening weekends. Debuting in over 4,000 theaters, Black Panther certainly has taken advantage of being the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe 18th to be exact. but it has already proven to be more than just another superhero movie. The cultural significance of the reportedly
$200 million production has not been lost in the lead up to release.

Pre-release sales tracking originally saw the film debuting around $100-120 million in late January. But estimates now puts it as high as $170 million for the four-day. Disney are anticipating a four-day weekend in the $150 million range.

IMDb's page view data shows Black Panther dramatically outperforming the likes of Thor: Ragnarok ($122.7m opening) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5m opening) over the course of the three months leading up to release. In the past two weeks, it has also outperformed Captain America: Civil War ($179.1m opening) and in the last few days was outperforming Deadpool, which holds the current February opening weekend record ($132.4m).

Looking at a second place finish is Sony's Peter Rabbit, dropping around 28% for the three-day, pulling in around $18 million followed by another $4 million or so on Monday for a four-day right around $22 million and a domestic cumulative audience right around $54 million. And last weekend's top film, Fifty Shades Freed, should finish in third with around $16.5 million for the three-day and coming in just over $19 million for the four-day weekend.

Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should have a fun weekend as it will pass Spider-Man 2 to become the studio's second highest domestic release of all-time. We're anticipating a drop around 27% or so for a three-day just over $7 million and a four-day around $8.7 million. Come the end of the weekend the film should be pushing close to $380 million domestically.

Look for Clint Eastwood's The 15:17 to Paris to round out the top five with a $6.7 million three-day and a holiday weekend around $8 million.

Outside the top five we start with the second of the weekend's new wide releases in Lionsgate's release of Aardman's Early Man, which will open in 2,494 theaters. Industry expectations are for a debut in the mid-single digits for the three-day and based on what we're looking at we see no reason to argue. IMDb page view comparisons show Early Man performing favorably compared to Shaun the Sheep and the law of averages for similar titles from Lionsgate suggest an opening just shy of $6 million for the three-day and a four-day right around $7 million.

The weekend's final new wide release is PureFlix's Samson, which will open in 1,249 theaters. When looking at comparisons to previous PureFlix titles this one is actually showing some solid gains, outperforming the likes of The Case for Christ ($3.9m opening), Woodlawn ($4m opening) and Do You Believe? ($3.59m opening). As such, we're anticipating a three-day opening around $3.7 million and a four-day approaching $4.5 million, and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it pop a little higher.

In limited release, Warner Bros. will open Detective Chinatown 2 into 115 theaters; Sony Classics will open Foreign Language Oscar nominee Loveless into three locations; Bleecker will debut Nostalgia in three theaters; and Roadside is also opening The Party in three locations.

Source: Boxofficemojo

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